Activity durably hampered by political uncertainty
In 2025, activity was once again largely supported by public spending and the continued recovery in aerospace exports. Although the passage of the 2026 budget at the beginning of the year reduced short-term political and fiscal uncertainty, domestic demand could continue to be impacted. The behaviour of households, whose precautionary savings have reached historic levels, remains uncertain. Despite durably low inflation, which could bring about wage growth in real terms, job creation is expected to continue to slow.
Although lower interest rates will encourage a recovery in investment in capital goods, as was the case in the third quarter of 2025, this rebound is also uncertain, as shown by the backlash in the following quarter. At the end of 2025, the wait-and-see attitude of businesses also resulted in the creation of fewer permanent contracts and more fixed-term contracts. Against a backdrop of continued sluggish demand and ongoing repayment of state-guaranteed loans, businesses will continue to face a challenging environment. Bankruptcies are expected to stabilise at a high level, after exceeding 68,000 in 2025, which is 42% more than before the pandemic. As the 2026 budget does not include any significant cost-cutting measures, public spending is expected to make a positive contribution to growth once again in 2026. Aerospace exports are expected to continue their rebound given the order books, other industries will nonetheless remain dependent on the shaky recovery of the German economy.
Lack of a solid majority thwarts attempts to overhaul public finances
In line with recent years, the budget deficit will remain very high in 2026. The lack of a solid majority does not bring about significant spending cuts or sharp tax increases, in comparison with the 2025 budget. Therefore, the reduction in the public deficit will be very gradual. At the same time, interest charges will continue to rise rapidly in the wake of financing rates, which are now among the highest in the major eurozone economies. Public debt will continue to rise rapidly and its sustainability will be the main challenge for the French economy, against a negative backdrop of political instability.
The current account deficit is expected to remain low in 2026. Exports will be driven by aeronautics, while imports are expected to stay curbed by relatively low oil prices. The surplus in the services balance (1.9% of GDP) will be insufficient to offset the deficit in the goods balance (-2.1% of GDP). The current account deficit is financed by debt issues or listed shares purchased by non-residents. At the end of September 2025, non-residents held more than half of the securities issued by government agencies (54%), non-financial corporations (62%) and French banks (71%).
Political instability caused by a historically fragmented National Assembly
In power since 2017, President Emmanuel Macron of the centre-liberal Renaissance party was re-elected for a second term in April 2022. Although he again defeated Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally (RN) in the second round, the margin was narrower in 2022 (58.5% to 41.5%, compared to 66% to 34% in 2017). In the parliamentary elections that followed two months later, his party won only 170 out of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament. The coalition with two other centre-right parties managed to secure only a total of 250 seats, which forced the government to pass budgets and reforms without a vote in the National Assembly due to the lack of a majority, thereby running the risk of a vote of no confidence. In June 2024, following the RN's landslide victory in the European elections, President Macron decided to dissolve the National Assembly. The subsequent legislative elections resulted in an even more fragmented National Assembly divided into three blocs, none of which had an absolute majority. The left-wing NFP alliance won 192 seats (including 72 for the far-left LFI party), the centrist Ensemble coalition 164 and the RN 143. President Macron appointed Michel Barnier (LR, right) as Prime Minister, who lost a vote of no confidence by the National Assembly in December 2024, and later the centrist François Bayrou, who in turn lost a no-confidence vote in September 2025.
Their successor, Sébastien Lecornu (centrist), also depends on the support of the LR and the Socialists. Like his predecessors, he is under constant threat of a vote of no confidence. Although he was appointed a second time by President Macron after resigning in October 2025 following a deadlock in negotiations over the 2026 budget, the risk of yet another vote of no confidence or his resignation cannot be ruled out. At the end of December 2025, failure to agree on the 2026 budget forced the government to pass emergency legislation to ensure the continuity of the French state. In early 2026, the government finally succeeded in passing a budget without significantly reducing the deficit thanks to concessions made to the PS (limited spending cuts) and the LR (limited tax increases). As a result, they did not vote in favour of the motions of no confidence that followed the budget's approval.
In light of this unprecedented fragmentation, which makes it impossible to carve out a lasting majority, the scenario of dissolving the National Assembly (the lower house of Parliament) and calling new legislative elections seems likely in the long term. The exact timing of such a decision is uncertain yet, especially given the fact that all eyes are already on the 2027 presidential elections, which will likely be followed by a fresh round of legislative elections. However, given the fragmentation and polarisation of the political landscape, it is far from certain that a stable majority will emerge from these elections. The risk of political instability therefore remains particularly high in the short term and potentially in the medium term as well.

Deutschland
Italien
Belgien
Spanien
USA
Niederlande








