The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a mobility crisis, mainly because of physical distancing requirements and the necessity to avoid confined spaces, to limit the virus’propagation. This has had a disastrous impact on the global transport sector, with air passenger transport being the most affected segment.
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Coface reports a positive net income of €11.3m for the second quarter 2020 and continues to implement its strategic plan
Turnover for the first semester: €725m, down 0.6% at constant FX and perimeter:
Client retention and new business achieve record levels, with a positive net production of €33m.
First effects of re-pricing are now visible (+0.2%).
Revenues from services progress by 7%, including information services up by 13%.
Client activities continue to slowdown – a trend expected to continue over the following quarters.
Although the second quarter of 2020 is shaping up to be the most challenging period of the year, there are now good reasons to think that the road to recovery will be long and arduous. Despite immediate tax deferrals, liquidity guarantees, it is likely that many firms will find themselves in difficulty.Read More
After a 2019 that was dominated by trade tensions between the United States and China, Coface has observed an incipent recovery in Asia (excluding China), supported by supply chain shifts and additional liquidity from the US Federal Reserve.Read More
As the COVID-19 epidemic hits the United States very hard, Coface forecasts in its baseline scenario that the country's GDP will contract by 5.6% in 2020, before rebounding by 3.3% in 2021. Nevertheless, this forecast is threatened by the resurgence of the outbreak in several states, which are already pausing or even reversing the resumption of activity after the extensive lockdown of April.Read More
Coface forecasts that the recession in 2020 (a 4.4% drop in world GDP) will be stronger than that of 2009. Despite the recovery expected in 2021 (+5.1%) – assuming there is no second wave of the coronavirus pandemic – GDP would remain 2 to 5 points lower in the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom, when compared to 2019 levels.Read More
In the context of weaker activity in China due to the health crisis, Coface’s latest survey on business payments in China shows a deterioration in payment behaviour in 2019.
66% of surveyed companies reported payment delays. The length of payment delays remained stable at 86 days in 2019. Nevertheless, sectors that have been hit the most by lockdown measures will have to delay payments in order to survive in 2020 and the number of corporate insolvencies should increase.
At the moment, reliable forecasts of how the corona pandemic and the economy will affect the global, continental and national economies are hardly possible. The parameters are changing too fast. Nevertheless, the economists at Coface are of course also observing and analysing the development very precisely.
Due to the current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its impact on the global economy, it is unlikely that China will be able to achieve its 2020 growth target. Coface forecasts a growth rate of 4% for the Chinese economy in 2020.Read More
At first, the COVID-19 epidemic in China only affected a limited number of value chains – but it has since turned into a global pandemic. Its repercussions have created a double shock – supply and demand – that is affecting a large number of industries in all over the world.Read More
The corona crisis is spreading to our entire world - the year 2020 will face the global economy with a challenging situation that is threatening the maintenance of a solid economic growth. Although drastic actions have largely been taken in Europe to reduce the spread of the corona virus, WHO estimates that COVID-19 will continue to spread worldwide.Read More
Despite the economic slowdown, Coface’s latest survey on business payments in Poland shows that payment delays have systematically shortened since 2017 – but the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the Polish economy remains to be seen.Read More
As Coface launches the 2020 edition of its Country & Sector Risks Handbook, Chief Economist Julien Marcilly today presents the main threats for the global economy in 2020 at the Coface Country Risk Conference in Paris.Read More