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18 months after the start of the pandemic, access to vaccination is now the main factor setting the pace of people's daily lives and the global economy. GDP growth forecasts for 2021 have been revised upwards (+5.6%), but this is mainly the result of positive surprises from the United States. These improved growth prospects are reflected in world trade: after a 5% decline in volume last year, Coface forecasts an 11% increase for 2021.
At the moment, reliable forecasts of how the corona pandemic and the economy will affect the global, continental and national economies are hardly possible. The parameters are changing too fast. Nevertheless, the economists at Coface are of course also observing and analysing the development very precisely.