Guyana

major macro economic indicators

(e): Estimate (f): Forecast

RISK ASSESSMENT

The oil sector development will drive dizzying growth

In 2022, activity will continue to post a bright performance, with growth tremendously outpacing that of other neighboring economies. This is majorly underpinned by the recent strong development of the local energy sector and the supportive international oil prices, which have also boosted related services, construction, private investment and exports. As a matter of fact, oil output will increase from 120,000 b/d in 2021 to 320,000 in 2022, thanks to a new facility in Liza field. Since the American company Exxon-Mobil discovered an offshore oil field off the coast of Guyana in 2015, explorations have revealed higher quantities of oil. Indeed, in October 2021, the company increased its estimate of the discovered recoverable resource to approximately 10 billion oil-equivalent barrels. Moreover, rising oil tax revenues will allow the government to increase social spending, while also raising public investment. Still, the oil sector windfall and the economic reopening (amid the progress in COVID-19 vaccination) should also contribute to the increase in household consumption (69 % of GDP). Downside risks are related to possible new COVID-19 strains, the behaviour of oil prices, and possible threats to social stability. The latter risk concerns the historical frictions between the Indo and the Afro-Guyanese.

Oil will allow the current account to switch to a surplus and the fiscal deficit to shrink

The current account deficit should turn into a surplus in 2022, mostly driven by the positive trade balance, as strong oil prices and rising production will support exports. This should offset the rise in capital goods imports, such as higher purchase of machinery and equipment for oil development and stronger public investments. Likewise, the services deficit should continue to rise driven by oil-related services. Regarding foreign direct investment (33% of GDP), it should increase thanks to investments directed towards the energy sector. Besides, foreign exchange reserves amounted to USD 819 million as of September 2021 (equivalent to only 1.9 months of imports). Looking ahead, the expected shift of the current account to a surplus in 2022 and the strong inflow of FDI could contribute to improve the country´s international reserves position. In addition, Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund stood at USD 267.7 million at the end of March 2021 (USD 246.4 million in oil earnings and USD 21.3 million in royalties). Finally, in Q3 2021, external public debt was at USD 1.3 billion (or 25% of 2020 GDP), of which 64% is owed to multilaterals.

Regarding the fiscal account, the government maintained a high deficit in 2021. This was underpinned by the increase in public investment and the still high COVID-19 expenses. In 2022, the fiscal deficit will dramatically narrow, as the strong expected GDP growth and favourable oil prices will support tax intakes and will more than compensate the rise in public expenditure. While COVID-19 related expenditure is set to decline, the government will continue to take advantage of the oil sector windfall to support the expansion of other activities (including public works).

The government has focused on seeking more favourable conditions for future oil contracts and in improving the local power system

President Irfaan Ali from the centre-left People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP) took office in August 2020. He succeeded David Granger, who had headed a multi-ethnic coalition, the People´s National Congress or PNC led by the APNU and its junior partner, the AFC. There are historical frictions between the two major parties (the PPP and the APNU). While the Indo-Guyanese community broadly supports the PPP, the Afro-Guyanese population favours either APNU or AFC. Mr. Ali’s party has 33 parliamentary seats, which gives him a majority in the 65-seat National Assembly (the APNU+AFC coalition having 31 seats). Since taking office, Mr. Ali´s administration has eased its critics on the APNU 2016 production sharing agreement with ExxonMobil (considered as disproportionally favourable for the company with the government getting 2% royalties and 50% of profits). In August 2021, it rather stated its intention to increase oil royalties as part of a new profit-sharing agreement for future crude and gas projects, while also strengthening environmental regulations. Additionally, the ruling government also aims to improve the expensive and inefficient power system, while reducing its dependence on imported refined oil (the country does not have a local refinery) and constant outages. A cleaner energy strategy announced in October 2021 entails the upgrade of the transmission and distribution lines, the building of a gas-fuelled power plant fed by a 220-kilometer pipeline with offshore fields, and expansion of hydropower capacity. It has sought private investment for starting the construction of the plant in 2022. In a second stage (2027–2032), demand would also be met by solar and wind projects, replacing fuel oil power plants. This will be key, since the country´s power demand is expected to triple over the next five years. Regarding the protracted border dispute with Venezuela, it is unlikely to be resolved in the short-term. In September 2021, Venezuela´s president Nicolás Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaidó agreed that the oil-rich Essequibo region, which Guyana claims as its own, belongs to Venezuela and rejected the International Court of Justice’s role in settling the dispute. 

Last updated: February 2022